Resistance level

Resistance level is a key concept in Technical Analysis that is very helpful in determining the right moment to sell in an uptrend or to sell short in a downtrend. In other words, if gold is rallying and it's moving toward a price level at which it reversed several times in the past, we can say that it's gold resistance level.

Definition

It is the price level at which the selling interest is strong enough to overcome buying pressure and push the price lower. Thus, resistance is visible on the chart in the form of tops – these take shape precisely because of the existence of resistance. Resistance usually refers to the previous peak and that previous peak is quite often assumed to be the future resistance level. A resistance line is a line that connects previous peaks – it is an estimate of the future resistance levels. The chart below presents an example of a resistance line (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com/).

Gold Resistance Level

The declining long-term line based on the previous 2 important tops served as resistance. It was temporarily broken in early September 2017, but the move was invalidated shortly. The final implications were bearish, in particular thanks to the existence of the gold resistance line and the invalidation of the breakout above it.

The Logic Behind Resistance Levels

The formation of resistance levels is rooted in human psychology. To illustrate this notion, let us divide the market into three groups of people: the buyers, the sellers, and the uncommitted. Let us further assume that after some time of gold price moving sideways, it starts to fall. The ones on the short side of the gold market are happy, yet regret not having sold more. Should an opportunity arise (i.e. should the price return to that price level) they could increase their commitment and add to their short positions. The ones on the long side of the market realize they made the wrong decision and are hoping that the gold price will go up to the place where they entered the market so they could liquidate their positions. Finally, the uncommitted see that a new downtrend (be it short or long term one) has begun and are waiting for the next good opportunity to sell short. So when the gold price finally rises, their concerted effort is strong enough to push it downwards after reaching the gold resistance level.

Determining the Strength of a Resistance Level

The significance of a resistance level can be measured in three ways:

1. Time spent in the resistance area – the greater it is, the more important that area becomes.
2. Volume – the greater it is, the more significant the resistance level is. That is because heavy volume indicates bigger interest in that area and corresponds with more people participating.
3. How recently the trading near the resistance level took place – the more recent the trading, the more significant the resistance level is. It is because people remember recent events more clearly and in a more vivid way, and since the formation of resistance depends on people’s feelings and emotions, this factor is quite important.

Falling and Rising Resistance Lines

So far, only horizontal (or nearly horizontal) resistance lines in gold were considered. But once a downtrend has begun, it is often impossible for the price to return back to the point where it begun to fall in the first place. And in an uptrend, consecutive resistance levels are usually higher and higher. This is why trendlines (in downtrends) or channel lines (in uptrends) are often used as support lines.

A down trendline is a line that connects (at least two) crests in a downtrend. Once a down trendline is established, it is treated as a resistance line. A chart below shows an example of a down trendline acting as a resistance line:

A channel is an extension of the trendline technique. Sometimes price trend between two parallel lines, one of which is the trendline – these lines are said to form a channel. In an uptrend, a trendline is constructed by joining the successive troughs, hence the parallel channel line joins the consecutive peaks. And this line may serve as a resistance line in an uptrend. An example of a channel is presented below: 

Retracement Levels as Resistance

Another way of finding future support lines in the market is the idea of retracement levels. This notion stems from the observation that after a move in the direction of the prevailing trend, the price tends to retrace some part of it. The breadth of this correcting move depends mostly upon the strength of the main trend. There are various popular sets of these retracement levels, two of which seem to be employed most often: 33%, 50%, 66% and 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%. The latter group is called Fibonacci retracement levels and seems to be slightly more accurate than the first one. An example of Fibonacci retracement levels can be seen on the chart below:

Resistance Line Breach (a.k.a. Breakout) and Role Reversal

If a resistance line is penetrated by a significant amount, it becomes a support line, i.e. a line off which the price is more likely to bounce than to cross it from above – it is a concept contrary to the one of resistance. The same psychological factors (such as grief and regret) as in the formation of resistance play an important role in this case. An example of a silver resistance line becoming a silver support line can be seen in the above chart.

Verification of a Breakout

In order to consider a violation of a resistance line valid, at least one of the criteria listed below should be met:

1. The move above the resistance line should be significant. There is no clear rule telling what constitutes a significant move. Some use 3% as a benchmark in case of important resistance levels and 1 % in the short-term ones.
2. It should be accompanied by high volume
3. Price should close above the resistance level for 3 constructive trading days to confirm the breakout.

Conclusion

The idea of resistance is a fundamental one in technical analysis. It can be very useful in making investment decisions as it allows a trader and an investor to predict certain market moves.