Hello Golden Meadow. My name is Gary, and I am very happy to have arrived at this venue, in order to share my work.
I will plan to share some public (free) content and then as things progress, branch out into premium content, which will include a detailed weekly market report (including macro, sentiment and technical work on precious metals, stocks, commodities and more, along with in-week updates).
I have arrived here very far along toward our target for gold of 3000+, which has been active since gold’s major Cup formed its right side in 2020 and began making its Handle. Silver has dinged our next target of 35 and the HUI Gold Bugs index is far along toward its next target of 375+.
In other words, I am not here to bull you up on precious metals. That was for earlier this year. The broad markets are similar in that our time target has been “to or through the US presidential election” (+/-) and we are in essence, there. So certainly no bull pumping there either. Indeed, market risk by several of my indicators is nose-bleed high right now.
So, I’d like to settle in, let you get to know me better and let’s see how things shake out going forward. I am anticipating a counter-cyclical macro and primary in indicating that would be gold’s ratios to risk-on, cyclical markets. In other words, an asset with more counter-cyclical character vs. those that are distinctly cyclical. When gold’s ratios rise, caution is indicated across the macro.
So as an introduction, let’s review a few weekly gold ratio charts after taking a look at the big picture Cup in gold steaming toward its target. The situation is getting stretched and the risk/reward on gold’s price is obviously not what it was early in the year.
Gold/SPX ratio is range bound longer-term, but has been elevating over the last few months in what looks like a base-building exercise for an upcoming breakout.
Gold/ACWX shows a counter-cyclical indication globally, as gold is trending up vs. World stocks (ex-US).
Gold/Commodities is and has been rising in a counter-cyclical signal. Remember, commodities are generally cyclical, as they are the building blocks of economies.
Gold/Copper shows the metal with more counter-cyclical character vs. the metal that is very much cyclical. In this picture, Team Counter-Cycle is walloping Team Cyclical in a bearish message for many markets.
This is just a brief intro to some of my more macro fundamental oriented work. Going forward, I would foresee managing an oncoming bear market in stocks and some turbulence at least, in the precious metals complex and resumed negativity in commodities as well.
But for now, we are managing the latter stages of a bull market and we’ll take it a step at a time. Thank you for your time!
Gary Tanashian